my errornous habit

when it comes to explainging causal relationship. i always or frequently commit the mistake of quick conclusion.

first, when two things happen in sequence or close proximity, i tend to collade then together and say that one causes another.

second, i tend to be narrow minded in the analysis of things, when my mother is sick for one week, i tend to conclude that she would continue to be weak or even weaker because she has been sick for so long already, hence that should be the pattern later on. i seem to believe that the matter is simple causation

third, i tend to see things in a linear manner and fit simple theories into the picture and predict the outcome. of course the probability of error is high because you fail to take into account all the factors.

the reasons for all this short sightedness is due to naive, low awareness. i fail to identify the nature of the issue. if a issue is complex, and even the world outside does not have a full grip on it, like cancer or career or making money, then you have to remind that it is complex regularly and so you will not be too quick to conclude anything when in it.

tell yourself this" okay, this issue is highly complex with many interconnected factors which require detail analysis, writing down on paper all the factors, and giving weightage to each and the corresponding factors plus all the unknown ones. therefore, by just thinking off the brain, you cannot come to accurate conclusion by most thing, especailly those very complex ones. however, within the issue there may be simple issue depending on how you question the issue"

for example, in cancer issue" if you ask how will the patient feel tomorrow? then you can only be a little bit accurate.

if you ask"how the patient will be feeling the next second, then the guess will be more accurate"

hence the predictablility of issue or effects depend on certain things

time, the longer it is the more difficult to say because there will be many effects and causes rolling continously.

waht you are asking or predicitng, if you predict something with a very wide range, that of course the outcome has higher chacnes of falling in it.

if you issue is very simple and uncomplicated like how do you balance the pole then it will be easier than the question will the stocks of enron drop or rise tomorrow.

in short. complexity, ranger, time. are the factors i have name.

so remember, make sure you are sensitive to your thoughts that make conclusion subconcious or not. don't let your brain make subconscious beliefs, ideas, or causation theroies too hastily. filter your thoughts carefully. other wise they will hide in your brain without your knowledge and will affect your analysis of things and hence decisions an althoguh you will not die, you have a more difficult time, finding yourself trying to clear those illogical things in your head and waste precious time.

again, you can see that there are general things in life we have to learn as well as details and specifics things like this we have to learn. there is not sudden enlighten, or some super important theories that makes you understand everything and you can stop learning already.

i guess that every bit of infomation or knowledge are useful equally, some relevant some not so relevant and the learning process is more focus on continous improvement bit by bit instead of making quatam jumps as if you have hot gold. yeah right. suck my foot is you think you hit gold. if not for you previous experiences do you think you would have hit the gold.